Puntersrealm.com looks at the probabilities.

Russia vs. Germany

The clash between Russia and Germany on Saturday is probably the most thrilling fight of the week-end. The winning side in this match has a brilliant position for finishing on top, in the case of a tie Germany continues with the upper hand.

Stuttgart-duo Tasci and Kehdira have withdrawn from the encounter; and instead Jerome Boateng has the possibility of debuting in the national team. Solid Germany haven’t lost in any competitive match since the Euro 2008 final against Spain but Russia have sweet memories from the Luzhniki arena in Moscow, as it was here they helped knock England out of the European Championship with a 2-1 victory two years ago.

Both squads will feel confident they can win, although the away bet look to be slightly more valuable.

Calculated probabilities:

35% 31% 35%

Corresponds to following odds:

2.93.22.9

Finland vs Wales

A fight maybe not as exciting for a neutral viewer as Russia-Germany but could be worth a bet. Finland’s theoretical chances of reaching a play-off spot were eliminated after a disappointing draw against Liechtenstein and the team might not be as motivated as it should.

Wales’ chances of reaching the finals have been gone for quite a while but might want to show another side in Finland. West Ham defender Danny Gabbidon is ruled out, Joe Ledley is still an injury doubt but captain Craig Bellamy should be ready for the game. Wales have actually never lost in Finland and do have nice memories from the Euro 2002 qualifiers when pulling off a 2:0 victory. With Bellamy on the field, the chances for an away win might be slightly larger than most bookmarkers believe.

Calculated probabilities:

50% 25% 25%

Corresponds to following odds:

2.03.94.0

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